An ever-healthy housing market

Despite a fall in sales and a slowdown in prices, the fundamentals underpinning the Toronto housing market remain strong. The impact of a recent rate hike and a slew of measures at the provincial level, largely a 15% foreign buyer tax, have cooled what was once the most dynamic seller’s market in GTA and Southern Ontario history. New data released shows two important trends that underpin the stability and long term strength of the GTA housing market.

The first is that mortgage delinquencies are now at a record low and continue to fall. Data released by Equifax Canada shows that mortgage delinquencies have been falling in Canada, and large banks, like TD, report extremely low rates of default and delinquency. Another important and positive statistic has been the fact that home building has now been found to exceed demand in Toronto. For many years, industry groups, real estate professionals, and some politicians and economists have complained that not even housing stock was being built and that the government should be providing more incentives for builders to develop.

Recent data shows that between 2011 and 2016 there were 146,200 new households in Toronto, compared to the 175,825 homes that were built. This shows that housing supply exceeded established demand by over 30,000 units. While the supply of single detached homes in Toronto remains largely fixed due to space constraints, the latest census data shows that home supply has kept pace with home demand for many years. This proves that the GTA real estate market is adept at responding to the signals of demand and supply.

While having decreased month over month marginally, prices in Toronto are still significantly higher today than they were a year ago. The condominium market is on fire in Toronto, with double digit price and sale increases recorded in the last few weeks. Many realtors are predicting that the double whammy impact of a 15% foreign buyer tax and a small interest rate hike will temporarily cool the market before it heats up again, as was the case in Vancouver. Overall, the Toronto housing market remains rock solid.

Moving towards a buyer’s market?

As Tembo outlined in our previous blog post, several trends were beginning to emerge in the GTA real estate market which benefits buyers. The first was that prices were beginning to plateau, with increases not nearly as large as the preceding few months. Secondly, listings of new properties were rapidly increasing, quickly improving the historically low stock of housing. And third, sales were beginning to slow down, and in some cases, decline.

With early June data now available, many of these trends are continuing. In Oakville, for example, prices have dropped by 9% in the month of May with sales also dropping a whopping 43%. In the GTA, listings continue to increase even as sales are declining and prices are leveling out, also new data shows that housing stock is returning to historical averages after years of extremely tight supply.

The sales to new listings ratio, a measurement of the new number of overall sales compared to the number of new listings have also dropped below 40% for the first time in many years. This shows that supply is increasing and demand is falling. A 40% sales to listings ratio means that for every 100 new houses listed, 40 have sold. 40% is considered balanced and usually implies that prices will increase, but modestly in the single digits. With a drop below 40% appearing to now be the case, the market appears to have begun to shift steadily from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market.

These trends are likely to continue. Supply will continue to increase and will most likely exceed historical trends soon. The huge demand for housing has incentivized builders and governments to stimulate housing construction. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation recently released data showing single family detached home completions in the city of Toronto increasing by almost 5,000 units. Many new condos and townhouses are also nearing completion or under construction. Supply will continue to increase.

The key question is what will happen to sales and demand. If sales trends continue, demand will begin to fall. The result of increased supply and cooling demand will be downward pressure on prices. In the end, the market could end up providing two factors buyers love; plenty of supply and lower prices.

More on the Ontario Fair Housing Plan

Last week, Tembo released a blog outlining some of the basics of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan; a 16-point government initiative by the province of Ontario to cool the housing market in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region. In this blog, Tembo will explain other components of the plan and what the government of Ontario has been doing in the last few years to manage the real estate market.

The Fair Housing Plan will work with real estate agents and consumers to review rules agents follow to ensure real estate transactions are fair. The government mentioned the desire to strengthen real estate standards and to end the practice of double ending and to educate the public about the practice. Double ending occurs when a real estate agent represents both the seller and the buyer in a transaction.

Another aspect of the plan is to create a Housing Advisory Group which will meet quarterly to provide the government with advice on the real estate market and to provide feedback on the effects of the plan’s other points. This group would be diverse and would include economists, academics, and developers among other specialists.

The province will also work with the federal government to improve reporting requirements so that appropriate provincial and federal taxes are paid on the purchase and sale of real estate. Finally, the government will create an updated Growth Plan for the growing housing needs of the Greater Golden Horseshoe area. The updated Growth Plan will focus on increasing densification of existing suburban and urban areas and to ensure enough land is freed up for development without reducing protected green spaces.

Actions already taken

The government has already exempted first-time homebuyers from paying land transfer tax on the first $368,000.00 of the cost of their first home. Increasing land transfer taxes on high value ($2 million properties). Increasing zoning space for affordable housing, selling off surplus government land, and increasing the collection of real estate data are other measures the government has taken up recently.

Have you sold your home, and now can use an advance on your equity before closing day, perhaps you need money for renovations?  Tembo Financial can help!  Tembo offers this unique service to homeowners in Ontario and the GTA. You could receive your money in as little as 48 hours with no credit check and no appraisal* for expenses that matter to you.  Don’t wait, start today!

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An Introduction to the Ontario Fair Housing Plan

On April 20, 2017, the Government of Ontario unveiled a comprehensive, 16-point plan to reduce speculation, cool prices and rents, and to increase the supply of housing in the province. The plan was announced after much media speculation about the need for government action to reassure prospective buyers that they would have a shot at home ownership. In the interest of informing our audience, Tembo Financial Inc. has written this brief blog post to outline what the plan means and entails.

The first component of the plan is a 15% foreign buyer tax imposed on the sale prices of all residential properties sold within the Greater Golden Horseshoe region, effective April 21, 2017. This will apply to condos, detached and semi-detached homes, and townhouses. The area of the Greater Golden Horseshoe covers all of the GTA and includes much of the Niagara peninsula, Barrie, Peterborough, and Hamilton, see the map below for a better idea:

The foreign buyer tax follows moves the British Columbia government implemented in the Greater Vancouver area to cool prices. The second major initiative in the plan involves extending rental controls to every private rental property in the province, even those built after 1991. Now, all rental units will have to follow provincial guidelines on how much their rent can be increased year on year. The government will look to implement these new changes by April 21, 2017. The government also does not want rent increases to exceed inflation, in and around 2.5% a year.

The final set of initiatives involve increasing supply, incentivizing the construction of new rental units, a fairer tax approach to different kinds of properties, and giving big cities like Toronto the ability to tax vacant homes. The province will also look to develop surplus provincial land into residential areas and to look at ways to streamline the developmental approval process and to have bureaucrats look at barriers to housing construction. The government also mentioned it would look to curb the practice of ‘paper flipping’ to ease speculation. One new change will even see tighter rules on elevator repair guidelines for rental and condominium buildings. All in all, the government’s new package touches almost every facet of real estate and housing. From tax treatment to rental protection, to leases between renters and their landlords.